Analyzing the Impact of Climate Change on Rice production in Gisagara District,in Rwanda

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly affecting agricultural productivity, especially in developing countries where farming depends heavily on rainfall. In Rwanda, rice production is a key contributor to food security and household income, yet it is highly sensitive to changes in climate, particularly fluctuations in rainfall and temperature. This study aimed to analyze rainfall and temperature trends, assess rice production patterns and determine the relationship between climate variability and rice production data with qualitative information collected from farmers and agricultural stakeholders. Using a mixed-methods approach, the research combined quantitative data on rainfall, temperature, and rice yields with qualitative insights from 109 rice farmers and agricultural stakeholders. Data were collected through questionnaires, interviews, and field observations, while statistical tools such as regression and correlation analyses were applied to determine the relationship between climate variables and rice productivity.The results showed clear variability in rainfall patterns and a gradual rise in temperature over time. These changes significantly affected rice yields, with irregular rainfall and increasing temperatures leading to reduced productivity. Farmers demonstrated strong awareness of climate change, noting delayed rainfall, longer dry periods, and increased pest and disease outbreaks. In response, they have adopted several coping strategies, including adjusting planting schedules, using improved seed varieties, applying irrigation, and implementing soil conservation practices.Despite these efforts, the study found that current adaptation measures are insufficient due to limited financial resources, inadequate access to climate information, and weak institutional support. The study concludes that climate change poses a serious threat to sustainable rice production in Rwanda. It recommends strengthening climate-smart agriculture, improving access to reliable weather information, expanding irrigation infrastructure, and enhancing farmer training programs to build resilience and ensure long-term productivity.

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