Decision-Making Under Uncertainty in Entrepreneurship: Intuition, Symbolic Cognition, and Reflective Tools.

Abstract

Entrepreneurial decision-making differs from traditional management decisions. There is an inherent lack of historic data for the new venture, as it typically involves innovation and out-of-routine products or services. Market conditions are unknown, open-ended parameters, unsupported outcomes makes it nearly impossible to rationally predict outcomes. This literature review focuses on finding tools and frameworks that can support decision-making in uncertainty for entrepreneurs. The review will look into the micro-process of decision making. It shall span studies from entrepreneurship, decision science, psychology, and organizational behaviour. The findings of the review shall highlight - the process of good entrepreneurial decisions is more about reflection and gaining clarity, coherence, adaptability and learning over calculated outcomes.

This study also highlights disciplined intuition as the primary resource for decision-making as the entrepreneur’s experience and ability to recognize patterns is more useful in negotiating bias and emotional attachment. It is important to reiterate that structured reflection, an examination of symbolic approach to sense making using archetypes, metaphors or storytelling is necessary stages of this decision-making process. This framework is characteristically useful for an ethically framed prompt system rather than predictive conclusions. The chapter concludes by highlighting research gaps and explaining why qualitative research is well suited to studying these reflective decision-support practices in startup settings.

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